The future of energy planning, what we got right and what we missed
- 30 December 2025
- Posted by: Greg Coleman
- Category: energy
This time last year we published The future of energy: planning beyond 2025 blog. It was written in the spirit of pragmatism; energy transitions are real, messy and shaped as much by infrastructure and politics as by ambition.
A year on, two things are true at once.
- Renewables kept scaling.
- And in many markets, progress still feels slower than the headlines suggest.
So, what did we predict correctly, what did we get wrong, and what really matters as we look into 2026.
What we predicted correctly
Renewables would keep growing, but integration would get harder
Solar and wind have continued to scale, with solar doing most of the heavy lifting. Capacity additions remain strong across many regions.
What has become much clearer is that the bottleneck is no longer generation cost. It is what happens when you try to connect, balance and move electricity at scale.
The system is struggling to absorb what is being built.
Natural gas would remain central
We said last year that gas would continue to play a critical role in balancing power systems while renewables scale.
That has proven accurate, particularly where demand growth, extreme weather and intermittency collide. In many markets, flexibility is still being delivered by gas, whether policymakers like it or not.
Energy security would keep shaping decisions
Geopolitics, affordability and resilience continue to shape energy planning.
Even where long term decarbonisation targets remain unchanged, short and medium term decisions are still being pulled by security of supply and cost.
What we underestimated, or did not say loudly enough
We did not put electricity grids at the centre of the story
We talked about infrastructure, but we did not treat electricity networks as the binding constraint they have now become. Across many markets, grid capacity, connection queues and upgrade timelines are now the main brake on progress.
This is no longer a future risk. It is a present one.
We assumed permitting and public acceptance would move faster
Grid expansion is not just an engineering problem. It is a social and political one. People broadly support decarbonisation, and at the same time resist new pylons, substations and overhead lines near where they live. That tension is now one of the most material constraints on delivery.
Looking into 2026, three forces shaping energy markets
- Oil production in Africa, not a flood, but a shift
Africa’s oil story is often framed as exploration hype or long dated potential. The more interesting reality is that 2026 marks a shift from promise to presence in several markets.
This is not about flooding global markets with oil. It is about changing trade flows, geopolitics and domestic planning assumptions.
Uganda, moving towards first oil
Uganda is targeting first oil in the second half of 2026. If delivered, this will mark a shift from future producer to exporter, supported by new infrastructure and export routes. For East Africa, this is as much about logistics, institutions and regional integration as it is about barrels.
Atlantic basin supply is already arriving
New production in countries such as Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire is no longer theoretical. Output has started, ramp ups are underway and export cargoes are part of the market. Volumes are modest in global terms, but meaningful regionally.
Namibia, strategic, but not a 2026 volume story
Namibia’s discoveries remain highly significant, but 2026 is more likely to be about development decisions than first oil. Expect long term positioning rather than near term supply.
What this means for global energy markets
Africa’s oil growth will not, on its own, move prices dramatically.
But it matters because it:
- adds diversity of supply in a geopolitically tense world
- subtly reshapes OPEC and OPEC+ dynamics
- changes domestic planning horizons in producer countries.
Energy planners should treat Africa as a set of distinct timelines and risks, not a single story.
- African LNG, Mozambique will take a step, Tanzania remains stalled
Africa’s LNG story in 2026 will not move in unison. The divergence between Mozambique and Tanzania is becoming clearer, and it matters for how planners should read African gas narratives.
Mozambique is likely to take a visible step forward. After years of disruption, security challenges and delayed final investment decisions, incremental progress rather than a full-scale breakthrough is the realistic expectation for 2026. Projects already under development and offshore production provide momentum that is difficult to reverse. Mozambique moves from being a perpetual “future option” to a cautious re-entrant in the LNG supply conversation.
Tanzania, by contrast, is still stalled. Despite repeated signals of intent and long running negotiations around an LNG export project, fiscal terms, regulatory uncertainty and execution risk continue to prevent a final investment decision. In 2026, Tanzania remains a strategic possibility rather than an active supply story.
This distinction matters. It reinforces a broader point often missed in global energy commentary, Africa is not one LNG timeline. Some projects advance slowly through execution, others remain stuck in negotiation, and many never move beyond concept.
For global gas markets, this means African LNG growth remains incremental, uneven and politically sensitive. It supports diversification and regional security, but it does not act as a rapid release valve for global LNG supply.
- The issue nobody wants to talk about, grids are the real bottleneck
Here is the blunt truth. In many markets, renewables are not slow because ambition has faded. They are slow because electricity grids cannot absorb them fast enough.
This shows up in three ways.
- Connection delays and queue backlogs: thousands of projects are stuck waiting for connection approval. These are not paper delays. They reflect real constraints, network upgrades, transformer availability, land access and engineering capacity.
- Curtailment and congestion: in markets with high renewable penetration, grid congestion is driving curtailment and cost. Building generation without network reinforcement increasingly creates stranded value.
- The quiet return of fossil flexibility: when grids are stressed, systems fall back on what keeps the lights on. That has meant delaying retirements or bringing fossil capacity back into service, often quietly and without fanfare.
What actually needs to happen in 2026
More generation alone will not solve this. We need to plan and fund electricity networks as national critical infrastructure, because that is what they are.
That means focusing on five unglamorous priorities:
- Faster and clearer permitting for transmission and distribution
- Connection reform that rewards readiness and system value
- Serious investment in distribution networks, where electrification actually lands
- Digitalisation and flexibility markets, not just steel in the ground
- A social compact on infrastructure, because local opposition is a delivery risk
This is expensive. It is politically difficult. And it is the price of moving from ambition to execution.
What this means for energy planning beyond 2026
My slightly opinionated takeaway is simple. The next phase of the energy transition is not a technology challenge. It is a delivery challenge.
Delivery means grids, permitting, components, land, skills, public consent and finance. It also means being honest that oil and gas investment in new regions continues, and that this interacts with security and affordability in complex ways.
If we want faster progress, the conversation has to change.
Less theatre. More truth.
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