Known unknowns – the UK’s flaring and emissions performance

4 October 2024
Posted by: David Bamford
Category: energy transition

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The UK’s North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA) has recently published its review of 2023 flaring and emissions performance(1) together with a helpful ‘dashboard’(2) which offers details, with some very useful cross-plots.

In this report, we will dig into this review and its supporting data but first it’s informative to review some global analyses produced by the IEA, the World Bank, MethaneSat and Stanford University.

The IEA’s Global Methane Tracker(3) states that ‘Methane emissions from the energy sector remained near a record high in 2023’:

“We estimate that the production and use of fossil fuels resulted in close to 120 million tonnes (Mt) of methane emissions in 2023, while a further 10 Mt came from bioenergy – largely stemming from the traditional use of biomass. Emissions have remained around this level since 2019, when they reached a record high. Since fossil fuel supply has continued to expand since then, this indicates that the average methane intensity of production globally has declined marginally during this period.”

The World Bank’s 2024 Global Gas Flaring Report(4) states that:

“Global gas flaring volumes rose by about 7% to 148 bcm in 2023 from 139 bcm in 2022. Oil production remained relatively stable, resulting in an increase in the global average flaring intensity. The total increase of 9 bcm in gas flaring resulted in an additional 23 million tonnes of CO2e emissions.

The top nine flaring countries continue to account for 75% of all flaring but only 46% of global oil production. The gas flared in 2023 could have been used to improve energy access in some of the world's most energy-poor regions. If utilized, it could have generated enough electricity to double the amount currently provided in Sub-Saharan Africa.”

The reports can be summarised thus:

Global volumes of flared and emitted methane are going up not down, as some would claim.

Large amounts of energy are being wasted, p&@@ed up against a wall so to speak!

This is in spite of the significant amounts of money being invested in ever higher resolution satellite systems, the plethora of sensors, certification etc; the burgeoning regulations in the EU and the USA.

The impression is that regulations are simply not being enforced, companies are allowed simply to “mark their own homework” and problems emerge whenever some serious measurement is done(5) – MethaneSat report that “oil and natural gas producers across the U.S. are emitting methane into the atmosphere at over four times the rates estimated by the Environmental Protection Agency for those same areas based on industry-reported data. The results also show that operators are exceeding their own widely touted emissions goals eightfold.”

Likewise, Stanford(6) report similar results and in particular note that:

“ The new emission and cost estimates are roughly three times the level predicted by the U.S. government. The results are based on approximately 1 million aerial measurements of U.S. wells, pipelines, storage, and transmission facilities in six of the nation’s most productive regions, including the Permian and Forth Worth in Texas and New Mexico; California’s San Joaquin basin; Colorado’s Denver-Julesburg basin; Pennsylvania’s section of the Appalachian basin; and Utah’s Uinta basin.”

and

“Total estimated leaked emissions range from just less than one percent to as much as 9.6% of total volume, with an average of 3% across the surveyed regions. The federal government estimates that methane emissions from oil and gas facilities nationwide average roughly 1% of gas production.”

To summarise:

Globally, flaring and emissions volumes are going up and not down.

Actual emissions measurements, typically involving a combination of satellite, airborne and ground station sensors, aided by “walkers” are oftentimes significantly higher than:

a) assessments reported by companies.

b) estimates and predictions made by regulators/governments.

With this in mind, let’s review NSTA’s findings for 2023, well summarised in this graphic.

Posing a number of questions, but not asking why the UK’s flaring and emissions resemble ski slopes when global flaring and emissions are increasing:

The words ‘measurement’ and ‘verification’ are hard to find in the NSTA report, as opposed to ‘estimate’ and ‘prediction’. Is most of the data the result of ‘proxy measurements’ (eg 5% less than last year) or ‘engineering protocols’ (eg gas at this pressure will leak 1% of the flowing volume) or simply ‘guesstimates’?

Should we anticipate that as and when actual verified measurements become available, they will report emissions (and flaring) significantly higher than current NSTA reporting?

The data is grouped in terms of regions, sub-regions and field complexes. Why is there no reporting by company which is surely the information that investors would find the most useful?

Comparisons with alternative sources of gas such as LNG and Norwegian pipelines are important. What is the source of the 4x statement re LNG?

NSTA publicises when it has fined companies for not complying with regulations(7), for not doing their ‘homework’.

Surely it would welcome independent verification of companies’ reported flaring and emission measurements, independent ‘marking of homework’?

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